2020 Vision - A CIA report predicts that American global dominance could end in 15 years. By Fred Kaplan

2020 Vision - A CIA report predicts that American global dominance could end in 15 years. By Fred Kaplan

2020 Vision
A CIA report predicts that American global dominance could end in 15 years.
By Fred Kaplan
Posted Wednesday, Jan. 26, 2005, at 2:48 PM PT

Who will be the first politician brave enough to declare publicly that the United States is a declining power and that America's leaders must urgently discuss what to do about it? This prognosis of decline comes not (or not only) from leftist scribes rooting for imperialism's downfall, but from the National Intelligence Council—the "center of strategic thinking" inside the U.S. intelligence community.

The NIC's conclusions are starkly presented in a new 119-page document, "Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project." It is unclassified and available on the CIA's Web site. The report has received modest press attention the past couple weeks, mainly for its prediction that, in the year 2020, "political Islam" will still be "a potent force." Only a few stories or columns have taken note of its central conclusion:

The likely emergence of China and India ... as new major global players—similar to the advent of a united Germany in the 19th century and a powerful United States in the early 20th century—will transform the geopolitical landscape with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous two centuries.

In this new world, a mere 15 years away, the United States will remain "an important shaper of the international order"—probably the single most powerful country—but its "relative power position" will have "eroded." The new "arriviste powers"—not only China and India, but also Brazil, Indonesia, and perhaps others—will accelerate this erosion by pursuing "strategies designed to exclude or isolate the United States" in order to "force or cajole" us into playing by their rules.

America's current foreign policy is encouraging this trend, the NIC concluded. "U.S. preoccupation with the war on terrorism is largely irrelevant to the security concerns of most Asians," the report states. The authors don't dismiss the importance of the terror war—far from it. But they do write that a "key question" for the future of America's power and influence is whether U.S. policy-makers "can offer Asian states an appealing vision of regional security and order that will rival and perhaps exceed that offered by China." If not, "U.S. disengagement from what matters to U.S. Asian allies would increase the likelihood that they will climb on Beijing's bandwagon and allow China to create its own regional security that excludes the United States."

To the extent that these new powers seek others to emulate, they may look to the European Union, not the United States, as "a model of global and regional governance."

This shift to a multipolar world "will not be painless," the report goes on, "and will hit the middle classes of the developed world in particular" with further outsourcing of jobs and outflow of capital investment. In short, the NIC's forecast involves not merely a recalibration in the balance of world power, but also—as these things do—a loss of wealth, income, and, in every sense of the word, security.

The trends should already be apparent to anyone who reads a newspaper. Not a day goes by without another story about how we're mortgaging our future to the central banks of China and Japan. The U.S. budget deficit, approaching a half-trillion dollars, is financed by their purchase of Treasury notes. The U.S. trade deficit—much of it amassed by the purchase of Chinese-made goods—now exceeds $3 trillion. Meanwhile, China is displacing the United States all across Asia—in trade, investment, education, culture, and tourism. It's also cutting into the trade markets of Latin America. (China is now Chile's No. 1 export market and Brazil's No. 2 trade partner.) Asian engineering students who might once have gone to MIT or Cal Tech are now going to universities in Beijing.

Meanwhile, as the European Union becomes a coherent entity, the dollar's value against the euro has fallen by one-third in the past two years (one-eighth just since September). As the dollar's rate of return declines, currency investors—including those who have been financing our deficit—begin to diversify their holdings. In China, Japan, Russia, and the Middle East, central bankers have been unloading dollars in favor of euros. The Bush policies that have deepened our debt have endangered the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency.

What is the Bush administration doing to alter course or at least cushion the blow? It's hard to say. During Condoleezza Rice's confirmation hearings last week, Sen. Paul Sarbanes, D–Md., raised some questions about the nexus between international economics and political power. Rice referred him to the secretary of the treasury.

The NIC issued the report a few weeks before Bush’s inaugural address, but it serves to dump still more cold water on the lofty fantasy of America delivering freedom to oppressed people everywhere. In Asia, the report states, "present and future leaders are agnostic on the issue of democracy and are more interested in developing what they perceive to be the most effective model of governance." If the president really wanted to spread freedom and democracy around the planet, he would (among other things) need to present America as that "model of governance"—to show the world, by its example, that free democracies are successful and worth emulating. Yet the NIC report paints a world where fewer and fewer people look to America as a model of anything. We can't sell freedom if we can't sell ourselves.

Fred Kaplan writes the "War Stories" column for Slate. He can be reached at war_stories@hotmail.com.

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U.S. Rep Schakowsky; "It is time for our soldiers to start the journey home." Press Release

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Nadeam Elshami

January 24, 2005 202/226-6903 or 703/869-9020 (Cell Phone)

nadeam.elshami@mail.house.gov

Schakowsky on U.S. Troops in Iraq :

"It is time for our soldiers to start the journey home."

CHICAGO , IL - U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) today released the following statement on U.S. soldiers deployed in Iraq :

"The time has come for the United States to withdraw our troops from the battlefield of a war that should never have been waged. There was no real justification for sending our brave young men a women to fight in Iraq, and there is even less reason to keep them there now to die in ever increasing numbers.

"Under false pretenses, the Bush Administration took our nation to war against a country that did not pose imminent threat to our security. In Iraq today, over 1,300 U.S. soldiers and an estimated 100,000 civilians are dead. This war is costing an average of $1.6 billion taxpayer dollars every week, while the mission remains vague, the troops overstretched and under-armored, friendly Iraqis chafe at our presence and unfriendly Iraqis bomb our convoys and enclaves. Neither democracy in Iraq nor security at home has been achieved. Instead, Iraq has become, in a gruesome self-fulfilling prophecy, the ground zero for terrorism that it was not when President Bush chose to invade.

"There are those who argue that the U.S. is obligated to 'fix' Iraq now that we have broken it. Unfortunately, the Administration has left us with no good options whatsoever. The worst choice, however, would be to continue to do more of the same, and watch the body count grow. It is clear that for stability to replace chaos, a political and not a military resolution is required.

"A political process has begun, admittedly fragile, and it is time for the United States to leave. Once the January 30 elections are concluded, the new Iraqi government takes responsibility for forging its own path toward stability and democracy. The U.S. should provide financial and material assistance for that effort and encourage the international community to help.

"The results may not be what the President envisioned or anyone wanted. Some experts warn of civil war. Many worry for the Christian community and for the women. These are very real concerns that, sadly, weren't even considered when the U.S. invaded, and even after 'mission accomplished' was declared by President Bush. We should do what we can diplomatically to address vulnerable populations, yet, as long as U.S. forces are on the ground, a lasting peace and stable Iraq cannot be achieved. All of us care deeply about our brave soldiers who are doing the very best they can under near impossible conditions. It is time to bring them home."

###

Leslie Combs

District Director

Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky

5533 N. Broadway, Chicago IL 60640

phone: 773-506-7100 fax: 773-506-9202

leslie.combs@mail.house.gov

www.house.gov/schakowsky

**********************************

Provided by Military Families Speak Out

Dear Military Families,

Below is a press release issued on January 24, 2005 by Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky from Chicago, Illinois titled "It Is Time For Our Soldiers To Start The Journey Home." Feel free to share this with your family, friends, community and with your local, state and federal elected officials.

In Peace and Solidarity,

Nancy Lessin and Charley Richardson

for Military Families Speak Out

www.mfso.org

www.bringthemhomenow.org

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DO NOT GO GENTLE INTO THAT GOOD NIGHT

DO NOT GO GENTLE INTO THAT GOOD NIGHT
poem by Dylan Thomas

Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Though wise men at their end know dark is right,
Because their words had forked no lightning they
Do not go gentle into that good night.

Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright
Their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight,
And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,
Do not go gentle into that good night.

Grave men, near death, who see with blinding sight
Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

And you, my father, there on the sad height,
Curse, bless me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

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Jesus on the Family.org, The Christian Minority Coalition

My dear husband found this website and shared it with me by email with the below intro:

JESUSONTHEFAMILY.ORG In a world of escalating violence, war and greed, parents want to protect their children and keep their families strong.
Learn how Jesus taught nonviolence and inspired spiritual growth, without forcing his faith on anyone.

The Christian Minority Coalition Many Christians from conservative churches have written to me, to describe that backlash they've had to endure from churchgoers and family members whenever they've dared to stand up for Jesus' teachings...particularly those that are inconvenient to certain political agendas.

For activist leaders of the radical religious right, the Bible isn't so much a spiritual guide as an ammunitions storehouse. Verses are handpicked from here and there (carefully ignoring those scriptures that might get in the way of their own "godly" image and political ambitions) to justify whatever they want to do.

And since there are commands in various parts of the Bible to do terrible things that Jesus never condoned--like stoning your rebellious children to death, or stoning gay people, or killing everyone in an enemy's village except the young virginal girls...well clearly, there's something for everyone, no matter how cruel, no matter how vile.

The sites described and linked above are precisely those kinds of Christian advocacies most needed for these times. These are the sites Mr. Dobson and Mr. Falwell should have built long ago - long before Americans would be required to vote based on real moral values. Since such a high moral action was beyond messers Dobson, Falwell, Robertson, LaHaye, Land, and the many others of the same ilk. We are left do deal with them in their firmest and bloodiest mantle - the same mantle as the Pharisees of old. I truly wish that I had been a part of the founding of Jesus On The Family and The Christian Minority Coalition. - Arthur Ruger - Publisher, The American Choice.

And I read several of the articles, and found them compelling, so I thought I would share the wealth; Here are a few of her articles. The entire website, however, is a wealth of information and exactly hits on how we experience our Christian spirituality. It surely seems that those of us who share similar views on the teachings and messages of Jesus have become a minority. Somehow, I don't really believe we are a minority, rather, I think the so called Christian majority just have aggressively loud voices and are intent on outshouting even Jesus. Enjoy, I am sure you will.

Articles by Dr. Teresa Whitehurst at Jesus on the Family.org

Author of Jesus on Parenting
coauhor of The Nonviolent Christian Parent

The Christian Minority Coalition

From Belts to Bombs, America's
Passion for Punishment
Let's Not Pretend We Didn't Know

Should Americans of Conscience
Go on Strike?
Dreams of Nonviolent Resistance

The "Christian Nation" Bombs:
A Call to Resist the Perversion of Our Faith

"Why Are Some American Christians So Bloodthirsty?"
Understanding Prowar Christians'
Indifference to Civilian Deaths

see more at Jesus on The Family

Jesus on the Family

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Hopi Elders Prayer

Hopi Elders Prayer

From the Hopi Elders

You have been telling the people that this is the Eleventh Hour.
Now you must go back and tell the people that this is The Hour.

Here are the things that must be considered:
Where are you living?
What are you doing?
What are your relationships?
Are you in right relation?
Where is your water?

Know our garden.
It is time to speak your Truth.

Create your community.
Be good to each other.
And do not look outside yourself for the leader.

This could be a good time!

There is a river flowing now very fast.
It is so great and swift that there are those who will be afraid.
They will try to hold on to the shore.
They will feel like they are being torn apart, and they will suffer greatly.

Know the river has its destination.
The elders say we must let go of the shore, push off toward the middle
of the river,
keep our eyes open, and our heads above the water.
See who is there with you and celebrate.

At this time in history, we are to take nothing personally, least of
all ourselves!
For the moment we do, our spiritual growth and journey comes to a halt.

The time of the lonely wolf is over. Gather yourselves!
Banish the word struggle from your attitude and vocabulary.
All that we do now must be done in a sacred manner and in celebration.

We are the ones we have been waiting for.

The Elders, Oraibi, Arizona, Hopi Nation

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We've reached Oz, my friends, travelling the Yellow Brick Road

I've changed the look, name and feel for this blog. To mark the changeover, I thought I better put an entry to announce the new direction of this blog. While it may still have some political news, war news, I have other blogs (too many) where I can contain political items, Blue Tones, and war items, Dying to Preserve the Lies. There is Back in the Days, Everything 1950s and 1960s along with several other of my blogs for other topics.

So where will I take this blog? Well, with the ground truth now being we do indeed have the uncertainty of Bush for another 4 years, it firmly looks to me like our country has indeed taken the Yellow Brick Road and wound up in Oz with the Wizard at the controls. When I had hope that the Wizard would be exposed for what he was, I still had hope for our country righting it's course direction. There was the slim margin of hope that the vote fraud, the electronic machines that put votes for Kerry into the Bush column in the hundreds of thousands across the states, the voter suppression and disenfranchisement done in very deliberate ways with very deliberate methodoly, that when all this was exposed and the public understood it had not gained the President it voted for but the imposter Wizard, that the country would indeed right itself.

That hope flittered away after Senator Barbara Boxer along with Representative Tubbs-Jones (two courageous women) stood together to contest the elector votes in congress and no other Senator stood On Record as contesting the vote, although had supportive things to say for Senator Barbara Boxer, and some few Representatives did indeed go on record as contesting the elector vote. So the elector vote went on record as noting George W. Bush as re-elected, for which I am entirely certain he will dismantle what's left of what was great about our country. Yet history was made, and the congressional record does show now the concerns, the proven concerns of a voting process that was highly manipulated by less than savory tactics to downright criminal vote tampering.

Now we do live in Oz, and unreality continues to become reality. Alternative universes exist side by side with mainstream media proclaiming the Bush alternative as the only universe and either a lazy or unwilling public (generally speaking) continues to assimilate the lies being told and integrating the lies into themselves as truth. Many of us see the Bush universe for what it is and know the lie after lie, deception after deception, and feel strongly the disconnect that goes with having to travel with one foot in one universe and another foot in an alternative universe.

So while in Oz, I need to resume my "life", what there is of it in these peculiar times where up is down, black is white, and find ways to continue the resistance while getting on with some of the normalcy of my life. The life I had before Bush invaded Iraq, before our young were dying in a foreign country that did not a thing to our country, before the torture of Abu Ghraib, before the carnage and killing of up to 100, 000 Iraqis themselves families with wives, husbands, children trying to live under the mantle of the Occupiers, before the campaigning that showed the worse of the worst side of politics, before the moral values people imposed their own immorality upon the entire country, and finally, the election which showed the near-end of democracy in being an election of the people, by the people and for the people.

Mourn I shall, continue the good fight, I shall, and along the way, there are still some cherished freedoms I have the priviledge to enjoy while my own son-in-law and nephew return for their second deployments in Iraq in the namesake of democracy. They know it for what it is, and I've known it for what it is from day 1 when this President invaded (illegaly) a country who was no threat to our own. Now all the troops are caught up in the undeclared draft while our own country cheers on the support the troops rally cry which is far from patriotic or national pride, rather the shame of our nation. For clarity sake, let me say here that I Do know how to separate the warrior from the war so I do not demean our troops, I demean the country that permitted this to happen and continues to live in willful ignorance about the facts of Iraq. I uphold the troops who are tightly constricted and conscripted with very little wiggle room for doing other than carrying out the mission and orders but I do not uphold the President who is the sole person to hold accountable and responsible for this horrific carnage to our troops and to a country scapegoated to be the Great Satan, the great evil-doers. The Great Evil-Doer presently occupies the White House and rules in Oz.

I shall go about now finding those precious gems among the dungheap. I've lived through the dungheap before, I shall again, but this is way beyond the safety or well-being of my own life, it's much bigger than that and so I tread new ground in that I am not dealing with the dungheap alone this time as we are all in it now. Life in Emerald City then, while the Wizard is at the controls, and how to survive it and hold onto humanity and dignity. There are still choices, many actually, and once I heard it said that even among the concentration camps, when people had been stripped of everything by their fellow human beings, they exercised their limited choices even when sometimes the only choice was how to die.

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t r u t h o u t - The Conyers Report: What Went Wrong in Ohio

t r u t h o u t - The Conyers Report: What Went Wrong in Ohio

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Okay, as you well know, all I've spent my time and energy on this last 6 weeks is election/vote fraud. Conyers has moved it along, and now it's time to act if you want to see anything come of it. The electorate vote goes before Congress Jan 6th, and Conyers has written letters to all the Senators and Representatives calling for a challenge to the electorate vote. Please, take a few minutes to contact congress and request they stand up for the challenge in this election.

You remember movie, Farenheit 911, and you may remember the scene where not one Senator would sign or stand up with the Representatives? Please not again, please take this small action to let congress know it matters. Article and link to easily contact congress follows:

Looking specifically to these Senators as potentially likely to sign;

The Senators who shall receive the greatest focus from Conyers in this matter are Biden, Bingaman, Boxer, Byrd, Clinton, Conrad, Corzine, Dodd, Dorgan, Durbin, Feingold, Harkin, Inyoue, Jeffords, Kennedy, Kerry, Lautenberg, Leahy, Levin, Lieberman, Mikulski, Nelson (FL), Jack Reed, Harry Reid, Rockefeller, Sarbanes, Stabenow, Wyden and Obama.

Link to Contact Congress http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm


Article:
http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/123104W.shtml

Conyers to Object to Ohio Electors, Requests Senate Allies
By William Rivers Pitt
t r u t h o u t Report
Thursday 30 December 2004

Representative John Conyers, ranking minority member of the House Judiciary Committee, will object to the counting of the Ohio Electors from the 2004 Presidential election when Congress convenes to ratify those votes on January 6th. In a letter dispatched to every Senator, which will be officially published by his office shortly, Conyers declares that he will be joined in this by several other members of the House. Rep. Conyers is taking this dramatic step because he believes the allegations and evidence of election tampering and fraud render the current slate of Ohio Electors illegitimate.

"As you know," writes Rep. Conyers in his letter, "on January 6, 2005, at 1:00 P.M, the electoral votes for the election of the president are to be opened and counted in a joint session of Congress. I and a number of House Members are planning to object to the counting of the Ohio votes, due to numerous unexplained irregularities in the Ohio presidential vote, many of which appear to violate both federal and state law."

The letter goes on to ask the Senators who receive this letter to join Conyers in objecting to the Ohio Electors. "I am hoping that you will consider joining us in this important effort," writes Conyers, "to debate and highlight the problems in Ohio which disenfranchised innumerable voters. I will shortly forward you a draft report itemizing and analyzing the many irregularities we have come across as part of our hearings and investigation into the Ohio presidential election."

There are expected to be high level meetings with high ranking Democratic officials next week to coordinate a concerted lobbying effort to convince Senators to challenge the vote. The Green Party and David Cobb, as has been true all along, will be centrally involved in this process, as will Rev. Jesse Jackson.

The remainder of the Conyers letter reads:

3 U.S.C. §15 provides when the results from each of the states are announced, that "the President of the Senate shall call for objections, if any." Any objection must be presented in writing and "signed by at least one Senator and one Member of the House of Representatives before the same shall be received." The objection must "state clearly and concisely, and without argument, the ground thereof." When an objection has been properly made in writing and endorsed by a member of each body the Senate withdraws from the House chamber, and each body meets separately to consider the objection. "No votes...from any other State shall be acted upon until the (pending) objection...(is) finally disposed of." 3 U.S.C. §17 limits debate on the objections in each body to two hours, during which time no member may speak more than once and not for more than five minutes. Both the Senate and the House must separately agree to the objection; otherwise, the challenged vote or votes are counted.

Historically, there appears to be three general grounds for objecting to the counting of electoral votes. The language of 3 U.S.C. §15 suggests that objection may be made on the grounds that (1) a vote was not "regularly given" by the challenged elector(s); and/or (2) the elector(s) was not "lawfully certified" under state law; or (3) two slates of electors have been presented to Congress from the same State.

Since the Electoral Count Act of 1887, no objection meeting the requirements of the Act have been made against an entire slate of state electors. In the 2000 election several Members of the House of Representatives attempted to challenge the electoral votes from the State of Florida. However, no Senator joined in the objection, and therefore, the objection was not "received." In addition, there was no determination whether the objection constituted an appropriate basis under the 1887 Act. However, if a State - in this case Ohio - has not followed its own procedures and met its obligation to conduct a free and fair election, a valid objection -if endorsed by at least one Senator and a Member of the House of Representatives- should be debated by each body separately until "disposed of".

A key legal aspect of this is the second clause referenced in the letter. Rep. Conyers and the other House members involved do not believe the electors have been lawfully certified. They believe that there has been too much illegal activity on the part of Blackwell, other election officials, and Republican operatives on the ground and therefore, as stated in the letter, the electors were not "lawfully certified" under state law. Next week, the House Judiciary Committee Democratic staff will release the report referenced in the letter, which is now still in draft form, and which led Mr. Conyers to this decision.

The Senators who shall receive the greatest focus from Conyers in this matter are Biden, Bingaman, Boxer, Byrd, Clinton, Conrad, Corzine, Dodd, Dorgan, Durbin, Feingold, Harkin, Inyoue, Jeffords, Kennedy, Kerry, Lautenberg, Leahy, Levin, Lieberman, Mikulski, Nelson (FL), Jack Reed, Harry Reid, Rockefeller, Sarbanes, Stabenow, Wyden and Obama.

William Rivers Pitt is a New York Times and international bestseller of two books - 'War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to Know' and 'The Greatest Sedition is Silence.'


http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/123104W.shtml

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